Déjà Vu

The Spanish civil war opposed the Popular Front, who had won the 1936 elections, and the Spanish Phalanx, who had lost them. The Phalanx was supported by most of the officer class and their leaders, generals Mola, Sanjurjo and Franco, who brought over well armed experienced combat troops from occupied Morocco. The Popular Front government had few constituted army units on its side, but it had the backing of the major labour unions, the Stalinist UGT, anarchist CNT and Trotskyist POUM. When both sides solicited outside help, Mussolini and Hitler sent munitions, and troops to the Phalanx, while French and British governments hummed and hawed, maintained an arms embargo and tried to stop people crossing the border to join the International Brigades. The Spanish Phalanx was in line with Italian Fascism and German National Socialism, whereas the parliamentary monarchy and republic were repulsed by communism and anarchy. And so the Phalanx won the war – provoking a mass exodus – and installed Franco as dictator for the next 35 years. Not to mention the encouragement this gave the Axis Powers in the lead up to WW2.

The civil war in Syria presents a similar dilemma. Assad has most of the military elite on his side (dominated by Alawites since the French protectorate, 1920-1946), arms and support from Russia and China, plus units of Lebanese Hezbollah and probable volunteers from Iraq and Iran. Opposing him are popular organisations and army deserters – mostly Sunni with some salafi and a few international units not necessarily affiliated to al Q – with some material help from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. But the springtime social agitation of 2011 led directly to fighting, without an intermediary electoral process and short-lived government, which meant the opposition had to structure itself from a ground-swell of popular revolt, as well as fight a civil war. Meanwhile, Europe and America were humming and hawing over aid to the opposition forces, idly wondering if they were legitimate, and wishing they would just go away so as to avoid deciding anything. Unfortunately, the clear division between autocracy and people power is blurred by religious affiliations, as it was by political ones eighty years ago. The gas attack on a Damascus suburb may be a Guernica moment, when the crocodile world stood by and said, “How terribly sad!”. If Assad’s military regime wins out, it could be a nasty foretaste of things to come, as was Franco’s victory in 1939.

This is a modified version of a previous post, May 26th, 2013